研究发现,海水变暖导致生成更多大型飓风 分享到
Study: Warming Waters to Cause More Major Hurricanes 2018-10-0497088

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A new study predicts that warmer waters in the Atlantic Ocean will continue to increase the number of major hurricanes.
一项新研究预测,大西洋中较暖的水域将继续增加形成大型飓风的数量。
The study, published in the journal Science, was based on research carried out by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA. Researchers say each hurricane season is likely to produce five to eight major hurricanes by 2100.
这项研究发表在了《科学》杂志上,依据的是美国国家海洋和大气管理局(NOAA)所进行的研究。研究人员表示,到2100年,每个飓风季节可能会产生5到8个大型飓风。
In 2017, six major hurricanes formed in the Atlantic. Three of them – Harvey, Irma and Maria – made landfall. The storms hit parts of the United States and Caribbean, causing loss of life and an estimated $265 billion in damages.
2017年,6大飓风在大西洋上形成。其中三个登上了陆地,它们是飓风哈维、飓风艾玛和飓风玛利亚。风暴袭击了美国和加勒比地区的部分区域,造成了人员伤亡,估计损失达2,650亿美元。
Since 2000, the Atlantic has averaged three major hurricanes a year. Before that, the average was closer to two. So far this year, only one Atlantic hurricane, Florence, reached major strength.
自2000年以来,大西洋平均每年形成三个大型飓风。在此之前,平均值更接近2。今年到目前为止,只有一个大西洋飓风佛罗伦萨达到了大型强度。
The new study used a computer modeling system developed by NOAA to simulate different climate conditions. Researchers say they were able to correctly predict the active hurricane season in June 2017. Additional experiments showed that the main driver of the 2017 hurricane activity was a much warmer Atlantic Ocean.
这项新研究使用美国国家海洋和大气管理局开发的计算机模拟系统来模拟不同的气候条件。研究人员表示,他们能够准确预测2017年6月的飓风活跃季。另外的实验表明,2017年飓风活动的主要驱动因素是大西洋变暖。
Hiroyuki Murakami was a lead researcher on the study. He is also a climate scientist and hurricane expert at NOAA. He says the climate simulation system is an effective tool to help estimate current and future storm activity.
村上裕之是这项研究的首席研究员。他也是美国国家海洋和大气管理局的气候科学家和飓风专家。他表示,气候模拟系统是一个有效的工具,可以帮助估计当前和未来的风暴活动。
“This new method allows us to predict hurricane activity as the season is happening, as well as take into consideration the likely contribution of climate warming,” Murakami said. “We will see more active hurricane seasons like 2017 in the future,” he added.
村上说:“这种新方法让我们在飓风季来临时预测飓风活动,同时也让我们考虑气候变暖可能带来的影响。”他还补充说道:“我们将来会看到更多像2017年一样的飓风活跃季。”
Murakami told the Associated Press his team found that a combination of natural conditions and man-made climate change are making Atlantic Ocean waters warmer. Man-made causes included the burning of coal, oil and gas.
村上告诉美联社,他的团队发现,自然条件和人为造成的气候变化共同作用,正在使大西洋海域变暖。人为原因包括燃烧煤炭、石油和天然气。
Warm water is important because it acts as a fuel for hurricanes. Water has to be at least 26 degrees Celsius for a storm to form. The warmer the water, the more a hurricane can resist forces that would cause it to weaken.
温暖的海水很重要,因为它可以作为飓风的推动力。要形成风暴,海水至少要有26摄氏度。海水越暖,飓风就越能抵抗使其减弱的力量。
The Atlantic is predicted to warm faster than the rest of the world’s oceans. This is why the study estimates the number of major storms will probably increase by two or more on average.
据预测,大西洋比世界上其他大洋更快变暖。这就是为什么这项研究估计大型风暴的数量可能会平均增加两个或更多。
And warm water is especially affecting one important area, Murakami said. This box-shaped area includes a large territory south of Florida and north of South America, extending all the way east to Africa.
村上说,温暖的海水尤其影响着一个重要的地区。这个盒子状的区域包括佛罗里达州以南和南美洲以北的大片领土,并一直向东延伸到非洲。
Some of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes form off the coast of West Africa, before heading west toward the Caribbean and the U.S. East Coast.
一些最强的大西洋飓风形成于西非沿海,然后向西驶向加勒比地区和美国东海岸。
Ocean water in this box-shaped area averaged 0.4 degrees Celsius warmer than normal throughout the 2017 season. Murakami said the temperature was very unusual for a six-month time period.
在2017年的整个飓风季,这个盒子状区域的海水比平时平均高出0.4摄氏度。村上表示,在六个月的时间里,气温非常反常。
Some outside experts had issues with parts of Murakami’s study. Brian McNoldy is a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami. He told the AP it makes sense that unusually warm water caused the extra hurricane activity in 2017. But he was not willing to completely blame climate change.
一些外界专家对村上的部分研究有异议。布赖恩·麦克诺迪是迈阿密大学的飓风研究员。他告诉美联社,异常温暖的海水导致了2017年额外的飓风活动,这是有道理的。但他不愿意完全归咎于气候变化。
“Hurricane seasons don’t just keep getting more active as the climate warms.There is enormous variability,” McNoldy said.
麦克诺迪说道:“飓风季节不会随着气候变暖而仅仅变得更加活跃。有巨大的可变性。”
Kevin Trenberth is with the National Center for Atmospheric Research. He took issue with the fact that the study did not include research on large increases in ocean heat in deeper ocean areas. Trenberth said this can also be caused by climate change.
凯文·特伦伯思就职于美国国家大气研究中心。这项研究不包括深海区域海洋热量大幅增加的研究,他对这一事实存有疑问。特伦伯思表示,这也可能是由气候变化引起的。
I’m Bryan Lynn.
布赖恩·林恩为您播报。

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